India Weekly Economy Snapshot (July 2025): Growth Steady, Rupee Wobbly, RBI in Spotlight. #IndiaEconomy2025

IMF Upgrades India’s Growth Forecast to 6.4%

In a significant vote of confidence, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.4% for FY2025–26, citing strong macro fundamentals, robust industrial performance, and easing inflation. This cements India’s place as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

Key tags : India GDP forecast 2025, IMF India economy update

RBI Declares Victory Over Inflation – But Cautious Ahead

With retail inflation cooling to 2.1% in June, the Reserve Bank of India is breathing easier. The RBI recently cut repo rates by 50 basis points, shifting its policy stance to “neutral.”
However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra made it clear: “We've won the battle, not the war.”

Key tags: RBI rate cut 2025, India inflation trend July, RBI policy meeting August 2025

Credit Crunch: Retail Loan Growth Slows Down

While borrowing has been cheapened by RBI’s easing, retail credit demand is sliding. Defaults on credit card bills and personal loans are on the rise, with overdue credit card payments crossing ₹338 billion.

Key tags : India credit growth 2025, personal loan defaults India, credit card NPA July

Rupee Nears Record Low Amid US Trade Tensions

India’s rupee fell to ₹86.5/$, and could slide further if US tariffs (rumored at 20–25%) are imposed on Indian exports by August 1. Investors are watching the RBI closely for intervention.

Key tags : rupee vs dollar July 2025, India US trade tariff news, rupee forecast August 2025

India Signs Historic UK Trade Deal

On July 24, India and the UK finalized a free trade agreement cutting tariffs on 99% of Indian exports to Britain. British imports will see phased tariff reductions. This is expected to boost India's manufacturing and service exports ahead of the 2026 fiscal year.

Key tags : India UK trade deal 2025, Indian exports to UK, free trade agreement India

Equity Markets Dip, But Domestic Inflows Stay Strong

While Sensex and Nifty dipped ~0.7% due to global tensions, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) pumped in over ₹7,600 crore. FIIs were net buyers too, signaling confidence in India’s long-term economic story.

Sectors that stood out this week:

• Pharma: Lupin, Aurobindo, Torrent Pharma in action

• Energy: NHPC & ONGC drive capacity

• Defense: DAC clears ₹1 lakh crore in capital procurements

Key tags : Nifty update July 2025, FII DII activity, top pharma stocks India 2025

What to Watch Next Week (August 2025)

• 🏦 RBI Policy Meet – Aug 6: Will there be another rate cut?

• 📉 PMI and IIP Data: Will industrial growth remain robust?

• 💼 US–India Trade Negotiations: Will India avoid steep US tariffs?

Final Take: Growth Intact, Uncertainties Loom

India’s economy continues to display resilience and optimism, even as global headwinds and trade anxieties cast shadows. A strong monsoon, stable inflation, and rising global trust in India make it a bright spot—but the rupee’s fall and credit stress need careful watching.

India's economy continues to ride the growth wave even as global markets wobble. Here's your crisp roundup of what's shaping the nation's financial landscape this week — from GDP upgrades to rupee jitters and global trade realignments.